Sudtirol vs Modena — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sudtirol
29%
Draw
33%
result
Modena
38%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 33.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Modena win. Expected goals 1.14–1.33 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.8%), 0–0 (10.5%), 0–1 (9.3%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Sudtirol
| 22 Aug | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
Modena
| 22 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Cremonese | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sudtirol (Home · 6 matches) | Modena (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Sudtirol's home record; away stats use Modena's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.