Sudtirol vs Cesena — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Serie B·Saturday, 31 October 2026·14:00
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Sudtirol
44%
Draw
29%
Cesena
26%
Expected goals
1.37–1.00
Sudtirol · Cesena
Sudtirol win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (11.8%), 0–0 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sudtirol win is 1–0 (11.8%).
Sudtirol score at least twice in 40%; Cesena in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Cesena goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sudtirol goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score48%
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Over 4.5 goals9%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Sudtirol clean sheet37%
Cesena clean sheet25%
Sudtirol score 2+40%
Cesena score 2+26%
Sudtirol score 3+16%
Cesena score 3+8%
Most likely scores
1–113.8%
1–011.8%
0–010.3%
2–18.8%
2–08.8%
0–18.3%
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Sudtirol
| 22 Aug | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
Cesena
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sampdoria | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Virtus Entella | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mantova | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cremonese | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sudtirol (Home · 5 matches) | Cesena (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.40 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Sudtirol's home record; away stats use Cesena's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.