Sudtirol vs Catanzaro — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sudtirol
37%
pick · result
Draw
32%
Catanzaro
31%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sudtirol win 36.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sudtirol win. Expected goals 1.34–1.25 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.2%), 0–0 (9.3%), 1–0 (8.7%). It finished 2–0.
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Sudtirol
| 22 Aug | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
Catanzaro
| 21 Aug | A | vs Vicenza | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sudtirol (Home · 6 matches) | Catanzaro (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Sudtirol's home record; away stats use Catanzaro's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.