Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sampdoria
42%
Draw
31%
Virtus Entella
27%
Expected goals
1.43–1.07
Sampdoria · Virtus Entella
Sampdoria win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.9%), 0–0 (10.0%), 1–0 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sampdoria win is 1–0 (9.9%).
Sampdoria score at least twice in 41%; Virtus Entella in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Virtus Entella goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 14.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sampdoria goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market reference | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 31% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Sampdoria
| 23 Aug | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
Virtus Entella
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Cesena | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Vicenza | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Pisa | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sampdoria (Home · 3 matches) | Virtus Entella (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Sampdoria's home record; away stats use Virtus Entella's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.