🇮🇹 Serie B·Saturday, 29 August 2026·17:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Juve Stabia | 4.83 | 4.83 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSampdoria
52%
Draw
28%
Juve Stabia
20%
Sampdoria 1.51 xGexpected goals0.89 xG Juve Stabia
Sampdoria win 52% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13.7%).
Sampdoria score at least twice in 45%; Juve Stabia in 22%.
1–0 13.7%1–1 13.3%2–0 10.3%2–1 10.2%0–0 9.9%0–1 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Sampdoria goals · columns = Juve Stabia goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score48%
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Sampdoria clean sheet41%
Juve Stabia clean sheet21%
Sampdoria score 2+45%
Juve Stabia score 2+22%
Sampdoria score 3+19%
Model vs market
| Source | Sampdoria | Draw | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 28% | 20% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Sampdoria
| 25 Aug | H | vs Modena | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Sudtirol | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Cesena | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Monza | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sept | A | vs Bari | 1–1 | D |
Juve Stabia
| 23 Aug | A | vs Virtus Entella | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Venezia | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Reggiana | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Spezia | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Sept | A | vs Catanzaro | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 4 Mar 26 | Juve StabiavsSampdoria | 1 – 1 |
| 24 Nov 25 | SampdoriavsJuve Stabia | 1 – 0 |
Sampdoria: 1W 1D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Sampdoria (Home) | Juve Stabia (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.1% | 63.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 36.8% | 52.6% |
| Clean sheet | 36.8% | 10.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.21 | 2.58 |
Home stats use Sampdoria's home record; away stats use Juve Stabia's away record this season.