Sampdoria vs Catanzaro — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sampdoria
45%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Catanzaro
26%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sampdoria win 45.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sampdoria win. Expected goals 1.53–1.10 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (9.8%), 2–1 (9.0%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Sampdoria
| 23 Aug | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
Catanzaro
| 21 Aug | A | vs Vicenza | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sampdoria (Home · 4 matches) | Catanzaro (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Sampdoria's home record; away stats use Catanzaro's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.