Palermo vs Sampdoria — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 7 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Palermo
59%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Sampdoria
17%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Palermo win 58.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Palermo win. Expected goals 1.79–0.91 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (11.9%), 1–1 (11.6%), 2–0 (10.9%). It finished 3–1.
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Palermo
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Arezzo | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
Sampdoria
| 23 Aug | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Palermo (Home · 5 matches) | Sampdoria (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.83 |
Home stats use Palermo's home record; away stats use Sampdoria's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.