Palermo vs Padova — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Palermo
64%
pick · result
Draw
21%
Padova
15%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Palermo win 63.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Palermo win. Expected goals 2.06–0.89 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.1%), 1–1 (10.1%), 1–0 (10.0%). It finished 2–1.
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Palermo
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Arezzo | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
Padova
| 23 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Palermo (Home · 5 matches) | Padova (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Palermo's home record; away stats use Padova's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.