Palermo vs Carrarese — Serie B forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Palermo
66%
Draw
19%
Carrarese
15%
Expected goals
2.14–0.89
Palermo · Carrarese
Palermo win 66% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.3%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–0 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Palermo score at least twice in 63%; Carrarese in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Carrarese goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Palermo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Market reference | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 66% | 19% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Palermo | 1.46 |
| Draw | 4.81 |
| Carrarese | 6.07 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Palermo
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Arezzo | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
Carrarese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mantova | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Catanzaro | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Palermo (Home · 3 matches) | Carrarese (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 1.67 |
Home stats use Palermo's home record; away stats use Carrarese's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.