Padova vs Empoli — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Padova
45%
Draw
28%
Empoli
27%
Expected goals
1.42–1.11
Padova · Empoli
Padova win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.3%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–1 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Padova win is 1–0 (11.1%).
Padova score at least twice in 42%; Empoli in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Empoli goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Padova goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market reference | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 28% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Padova | 2.16 |
| Draw | 3.39 |
| Empoli | 3.45 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Padova
| 23 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–2 | L |
Empoli
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cremonese | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Padova (Home · 5 matches) | Empoli (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Padova's home record; away stats use Empoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.