Modena vs Mantova — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Serie B·Saturday, 31 October 2026·14:00
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Modena
46%
Draw
28%
Mantova
27%
Expected goals
1.51–1.10
Modena · Mantova
Modena win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Modena win is 1–0 (10.1%).
Modena score at least twice in 45%; Mantova in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Mantova goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Modena goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score53%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals12%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Modena clean sheet33%
Mantova clean sheet22%
Modena score 2+45%
Mantova score 2+30%
Modena score 3+19%
Mantova score 3+10%
Most likely scores
1–113.2%
1–010.1%
2–19.2%
2–08.4%
0–08.3%
0–17.1%
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Modena
| 22 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Cremonese | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 2–1 | W |
Mantova
| 22 Aug | A | vs Carrarese | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Empoli | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Modena (Home · 4 matches) | Mantova (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Modena's home record; away stats use Mantova's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.