Modena vs Empoli — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Modena
60%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Empoli
16%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Modena win 59.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Modena win. Expected goals 1.72–0.84 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.7%), 1–1 (11.8%), 2–0 (11.7%). It finished 2–1.
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Modena
| 22 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Cremonese | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 2–1 | W |
Empoli
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cremonese | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Modena (Home · 5 matches) | Empoli (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Modena's home record; away stats use Empoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.