Modena vs Empoli — Serie B forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Modena
57%
Draw
26%
Empoli
17%
Expected goals
1.68–0.86
Modena · Empoli
Modena win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.1%), 1–1 (12.4%), 2–0 (11.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Modena score at least twice in 51%; Empoli in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Empoli goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Modena goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market reference | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 26% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 1.60 | 1.70 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.64 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.64 | 3.39 | 3.80 Betfair SB |
| Empoli | 5.54 | 5.25 | 4.80 | 5.00 | 5.30 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 5.05 | 4.32 | 5.54 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Modena
| 22 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Cremonese | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 2–1 | W |
Empoli
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cremonese | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Modena (Home · 2 matches) | Empoli (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Modena's home record; away stats use Empoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.