Modena vs Cesena — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Modena
62%
Draw
22%
Cesena
15%
Expected goals
1.85–0.86
Modena · Cesena
Modena win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.5%), 2–0 (11.8%), 2–1 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Modena score at least twice in 56%; Cesena in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Cesena goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Modena goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Market reference | 62% | 22% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 62% | 22% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Modena | 1.55 |
| Draw | 4.15 |
| Cesena | 5.88 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Modena
| 22 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Cremonese | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 2–1 | W |
Cesena
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sampdoria | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Virtus Entella | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mantova | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cremonese | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Modena (Home · 3 matches) | Cesena (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Modena's home record; away stats use Cesena's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.