Mantova vs Hellas Verona — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mantova
38%
Draw
28%
Hellas Verona
35%
Expected goals
1.38–1.27
Mantova · Hellas Verona
Mantova win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.3%), 0–1 (8.5%), 1–2 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Mantova score at least twice in 40%; Hellas Verona in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Hellas Verona goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mantova goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 28% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Mantova
| 22 Aug | A | vs Carrarese | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Empoli | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 2–2 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mantova (Home · 5 matches) | Hellas Verona (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | — |
Home stats use Mantova's home record; away stats use Hellas Verona's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.