Mantova vs Empoli — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mantova
46%
pick · result
Draw
30%
Empoli
24%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Mantova win 46.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Mantova win. Expected goals 1.49–1.05 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 1–0 (10.8%), 2–1 (9.6%). It finished 3–1.
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Mantova
| 22 Aug | A | vs Carrarese | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Empoli | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 2–2 | D |
Empoli
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cremonese | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mantova (Home · 3 matches) | Empoli (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Mantova's home record; away stats use Empoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.