🇮🇹 Serie B·Sunday, 30 August 2026·17:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova | 2.15 | 2.15 |
| Draw | 3.11 | 3.11 |
| Empoli | 3.80 | 3.80 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketMantova
45%
Draw
31%
Empoli
25%
Mantova 1.49 xGexpected goals1.06 xG Empoli
Mantova win 45% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.6%).
Mantova score at least twice in 44%; Empoli in 29%.
1–1 14.6%1–0 10.0%0–0 9.4%2–1 8.8%2–0 8.3%0–1 6.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Mantova goals · columns = Empoli goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score53%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Over 4.5 goals12%
Mantova clean sheet34%
Empoli clean sheet22%
Mantova score 2+44%
Empoli score 2+29%
Mantova score 3+19%
Model vs market
| Source | Mantova | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 45% | 31% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 31% | 25% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Mantova
| 23 Aug | A | vs Monza | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Pescara | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Virtus Entella | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Modena | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Sept | H | vs Frosinone | 1–5 | L |
Empoli
| 23 Aug | H | vs Padova | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Reggiana | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Spezia | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Pescara | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Sept | H | vs Carrarese | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 14 Mar 26 | EmpolivsMantova | 2 – 2 |
| 21 Dec 25 | MantovavsEmpoli | 0 – 1 |
Mantova: 0W 1D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Mantova (Home) | Empoli (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.2% | 47.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.6% | 57.9% |
| Clean sheet | 21.1% | 15.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.74 |
Home stats use Mantova's home record; away stats use Empoli's away record this season.