Juve Stabia vs Cesena — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 15.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Juve Stabia
43%
top pick
Draw
28%
result
Cesena
29%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Juve Stabia win. Expected goals 1.43–1.15 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–0 (9.9%), 2–1 (8.9%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Juve Stabia
| 23 Aug | A | vs Palermo | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sampdoria | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Vicenza | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
Cesena
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sampdoria | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Virtus Entella | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mantova | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cremonese | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Juve Stabia (Home · 4 matches) | Cesena (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Juve Stabia's home record; away stats use Cesena's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.