Cesena vs Mantova — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cesena
34%
Draw
29%
result
Mantova
37%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Mantova win. Expected goals 1.31–1.34 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.9%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Cesena
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sampdoria | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Virtus Entella | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mantova | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cremonese | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
Mantova
| 22 Aug | A | vs Carrarese | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Empoli | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cesena (Home · 5 matches) | Mantova (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Cesena's home record; away stats use Mantova's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.