Cesena vs Catanzaro — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cesena
44%
Draw
27%
Catanzaro
29%
Expected goals
1.54–1.20
Cesena · Catanzaro
Cesena win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Cesena win is 2–1 (9.0%).
Cesena score at least twice in 46%; Catanzaro in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Catanzaro goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cesena goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market reference | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 27% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Cesena | 2.19 |
| Draw | 3.50 |
| Catanzaro | 3.27 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Cesena
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sampdoria | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Virtus Entella | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mantova | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Cremonese | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
Catanzaro
| 21 Aug | A | vs Vicenza | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cesena (Home · 5 matches) | Catanzaro (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Cesena's home record; away stats use Catanzaro's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.