Catanzaro vs Padova — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Catanzaro
46%
Draw
26%
Padova
28%
Expected goals
1.60–1.17
Catanzaro · Padova
Catanzaro win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Catanzaro win is 2–1 (9.1%).
Catanzaro score at least twice in 47%; Padova in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Padova goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Catanzaro goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 26% | 25% |
| Market reference | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Catanzaro
| 21 Aug | A | vs Vicenza | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
Padova
| 23 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Catanzaro (Home · 3 matches) | Padova (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Catanzaro's home record; away stats use Padova's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.