Catanzaro vs Carrarese — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Catanzaro
52%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Carrarese
21%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Catanzaro win 51.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Catanzaro win. Expected goals 1.71–1.11 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.7%), 2–1 (10.6%), 1–0 (9.9%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Catanzaro
| 21 Aug | A | vs Vicenza | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
Carrarese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mantova | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Catanzaro | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Catanzaro (Home · 4 matches) | Carrarese (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Catanzaro's home record; away stats use Carrarese's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.