Carrarese vs Sampdoria — Serie B forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Carrarese
39%
Draw
30%
Sampdoria
31%
Expected goals
1.37–1.17
Carrarese · Sampdoria
Carrarese win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.3%), 0–0 (9.3%), 1–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Carrarese score at least twice in 39%; Sampdoria in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Sampdoria goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 14.3 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Carrarese goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market reference | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 30% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Carrarese | 2.48 |
| Draw | 3.18 |
| Sampdoria | 3.04 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Carrarese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mantova | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Catanzaro | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 0–1 | L |
Sampdoria
| 23 Aug | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Carrarese (Home · 5 matches) | Sampdoria (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.83 |
Home stats use Carrarese's home record; away stats use Sampdoria's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.