Carrarese vs Empoli — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Carrarese
39%
top pick
Draw
30%
Empoli
31%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Empoli win 30.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Carrarese win. Expected goals 1.41–1.17 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–0 (9.1%), 1–0 (8.6%). It finished 0–1.
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Carrarese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mantova | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Catanzaro | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 0–1 | L |
Empoli
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cremonese | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Carrarese (Home · 5 matches) | Empoli (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Carrarese's home record; away stats use Empoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.