Avellino vs Palermo — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 30.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Avellino
23%
Draw
30%
result
Palermo
48%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Palermo win. Expected goals 1.11–1.67 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–2 (9.1%), 0–1 (8.8%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Avellino
| 22 Aug | H | vs Arezzo | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Vicenza | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 1–3 | L |
Palermo
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Arezzo | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Avellino (Home · 6 matches) | Palermo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 4.20 |
Home stats use Avellino's home record; away stats use Palermo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.