Avellino vs Padova — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Avellino
44%
Draw
29%
Padova
28%
Expected goals
1.52–1.11
Avellino · Padova
Avellino win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–0 (9.0%), 0–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Avellino win is 1–0 (9.0%).
Avellino score at least twice in 44%; Padova in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Padova goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 13.7 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Avellino goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Market reference | 44% | 29% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 29% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Avellino | 2.19 |
| Draw | 3.30 |
| Padova | 3.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Avellino
| 22 Aug | H | vs Arezzo | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Vicenza | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 1–3 | L |
Padova
| 23 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Avellino (Home · 4 matches) | Padova (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Avellino's home record; away stats use Padova's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.