St Mirren vs Rangers — Scottish Premiership forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St Mirren
13%
Draw
19%
Rangers
68%
Expected goals
0.85–2.05
St Mirren · Rangers
Rangers win 68% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12.2%), 0–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (11.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
St Mirren score at least twice in 21%; Rangers in 62%.
Scoreline distribution
Rangers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Mirren goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 12% | 23% | 65% |
| Market reference | 13% | 19% | 68% |
| Metis Forecast | 13% | 19% | 68% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St Mirren | 6.67 |
| Draw | 4.88 |
| Rangers | 1.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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St Mirren
| 1 Aug | A | vs Falkirk | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Kilmarnock | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
Rangers
| 31 Jul | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Motherwell | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 9 Sept 26 | RangersvsSt Mirren | 1 – 0 |
St Mirren: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | St Mirren (Home · 6 matches) | Rangers (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use St Mirren's home record; away stats use Rangers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.