St Mirren vs Motherwell — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St Mirren
36%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Motherwell
35%
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St Mirren win. Expected goals 1.25–1.25 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (9.6%), 0–0 (9.3%). It finished 3–3.
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St Mirren
| 1 Aug | A | vs Falkirk | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Kilmarnock | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
Motherwell
| 2 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Dundee Utd | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Mirren (Home · 4 matches) | Motherwell (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 3.25 |
Home stats use St Mirren's home record; away stats use Motherwell's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.