๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scottish PremiershipยทSunday, 30 August 2026ยท14:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| St Mirren | 2.64 | 2.64 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| Motherwell | 2.86 | 2.86 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSt Mirren
37%
Draw
30%
Motherwell
34%
St Mirren 1.23 xGexpected goals1.23 xG Motherwell
St Mirren win 37% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1โ1 (14.1%).
St Mirren score at least twice in 35%; Motherwell in 34%.
1โ1 14.1%1โ0 10.2%0โ0 9.7%2โ1 8.7%0โ1 8.6%1โ2 7.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = St Mirren goals ยท columns = Motherwell goals ยท % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score51%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Over 4.5 goals10%
St Mirren clean sheet30%
Motherwell clean sheet29%
St Mirren score 2+35%
Motherwell score 2+34%
St Mirren score 3+12%
Model vs market
| Source | St Mirren | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 30% | 34% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
St Mirren
| 3 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 0โ1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 0โ0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Rangers | 1โ1 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 1โ1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Falkirk | 2โ1 | W |
Motherwell
| 2 Aug | H | vs Rangers | 1โ1 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 0โ0 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 3โ3 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Kilmarnock | 2โ2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Dundee | 1โ1 | D |
Head to head
| 21 Feb 26 | St MirrenvsMotherwell | 0 โ 5 |
| 3 Jan 26 | MotherwellvsSt Mirren | 2 โ 0 |
| 9 Aug 25 | St MirrenvsMotherwell | 0 โ 0 |
St Mirren: 0W 1D 2L in last 3
Model context
| Stat | St Mirren (Home) | Motherwell (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 15.8% | 57.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 21.1% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 42.1% | 31.6% |
| Avg goals | 1.74 | 2.63 |
Home stats use St Mirren's home record; away stats use Motherwell's away record this season.