St Mirren vs Hibernian — Scottish Premiership forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
St Mirren
33%
Draw
29%
Hibernian
38%
Expected goals
1.22–1.32
St Mirren · Hibernian
Hibernian win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–1 (9.4%), 0–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
St Mirren score at least twice in 34%; Hibernian in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Hibernian goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 13.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Mirren goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St Mirren | 3.44 |
| Draw | 3.66 |
| Hibernian | 2.05 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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St Mirren
| 1 Aug | A | vs Falkirk | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Kilmarnock | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
Hibernian
| 2 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Rangers | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Hearts | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs St Johnstone | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Mirren (Home · 4 matches) | Hibernian (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Home stats use St Mirren's home record; away stats use Hibernian's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.