St Mirren vs Dundee Utd — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St Mirren
40%
top pick
Draw
26%
Dundee Utd
34%
result
Final score
0–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Dundee Utd win 33.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St Mirren win. Expected goals 1.40–1.27 against 0–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–0 (9.2%), 2–1 (9.0%). It finished 0–3.
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St Mirren
| 1 Aug | A | vs Falkirk | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Kilmarnock | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
Dundee Utd
| 31 Jul | H | vs Rangers | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 4–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Motherwell | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Mirren (Home · 6 matches) | Dundee Utd (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.33 |
Home stats use St Mirren's home record; away stats use Dundee Utd's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.