St Mirren vs Dundee — Scottish Premiership forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St Mirren
42%
Draw
25%
Dundee
32%
Expected goals
1.40–1.18
St Mirren · Dundee
St Mirren win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–0 (10.0%), 2–1 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St Mirren win is 1–0 (10.0%).
St Mirren score at least twice in 41%; Dundee in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Dundee goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Mirren goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 42% | 25% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 25% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St Mirren | 2.27 |
| Draw | 3.70 |
| Dundee | 2.94 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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St Mirren
| 1 Aug | A | vs Falkirk | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Kilmarnock | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
Dundee
| 3 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Aberdeen | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Dundee Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Mirren (Home · 4 matches) | Dundee (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.25 |
Home stats use St Mirren's home record; away stats use Dundee's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.