St Mirren vs Celtic — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St Mirren
15%
Draw
19%
Celtic
66%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Celtic win 65.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Celtic win. Expected goals 0.97–2.08 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (11.7%), 0–2 (10.9%), 0–1 (10.4%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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St Mirren
| 1 Aug | A | vs Falkirk | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Kilmarnock | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
Celtic
| 3 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 5–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Aberdeen | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Mirren | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Mirren (Home · 4 matches) | Celtic (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 3.33 |
Home stats use St Mirren's home record; away stats use Celtic's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.