Motherwell vs Hearts — Scottish Premiership forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Motherwell
30%
Draw
26%
Hearts
44%
Expected goals
1.19–1.45
Motherwell · Hearts
Hearts win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 0–1 (10.3%), 1–2 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Hearts win is 0–1 (10.3%).
Motherwell score at least twice in 33%; Hearts in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Hearts goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.2 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Motherwell goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market reference | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 26% | 44% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Motherwell | 3.15 |
| Draw | 3.68 |
| Hearts | 2.17 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.25–1.37 → 1.19–1.45
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Motherwell
| 2 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Dundee Utd | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Hearts
| 1 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Hibernian | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Motherwell (Home · 4 matches) | Hearts (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Motherwell's home record; away stats use Hearts's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.