Motherwell vs Dundee Utd — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.7 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Motherwell
49%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Dundee Utd
25%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Motherwell win 48.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Motherwell win. Expected goals 1.64–1.08 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.4%), 1–0 (9.5%), 2–1 (9.1%). It finished 3–0.
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Motherwell
| 2 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Dundee Utd | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Dundee Utd
| 31 Jul | H | vs Rangers | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 4–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Motherwell | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Motherwell (Home · 3 matches) | Dundee Utd (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Motherwell's home record; away stats use Dundee Utd's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.