Motherwell vs Aberdeen — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Motherwell
52%
top pick
Draw
25%
Aberdeen
23%
result
Final score
0–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Aberdeen win 22.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Motherwell win. Expected goals 1.65–0.96 against 0–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–0 (11.0%), 2–0 (10.1%). It finished 0–4.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Motherwell
| 2 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Dundee Utd | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Aberdeen
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hearts | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Celtic | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Kilmarnock | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Motherwell (Home · 6 matches) | Aberdeen (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Motherwell's home record; away stats use Aberdeen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.