๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scottish PremiershipยทWednesday, 2 September 2026ยท18:45
Metis Forecast
model onlyKilmarnock
44%
Draw
28%
St Mirren
29%
Kilmarnock 1.49 xGexpected goals1.16 xG St Mirren
Kilmarnock win 44% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1โ1 (13.2%).
Kilmarnock score at least twice in 44%; St Mirren in 32%.
1โ1 13.2%1โ0 9.6%2โ1 9.1%0โ0 8.0%2โ0 7.8%0โ1 7.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Kilmarnock goals ยท columns = St Mirren goals ยท % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Kilmarnock clean sheet31%
St Mirren clean sheet23%
Kilmarnock score 2+44%
St Mirren score 2+32%
Kilmarnock score 3+19%
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Recent form
Kilmarnock
| 2 Aug | H | vs Livingston | 2โ2 | D |
| 10 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 2โ2 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 0โ0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Motherwell | 2โ2 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Celtic | 1โ2 | L |
St Mirren
| 3 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 0โ1 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 0โ0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Rangers | 1โ1 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 1โ1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Falkirk | 2โ1 | W |
Head to head
| 9 May 26 | St MirrenvsKilmarnock | 0 โ 3 |
| 11 Feb 26 | KilmarnockvsSt Mirren | 4 โ 3 |
| 27 Dec 25 | St MirrenvsKilmarnock | 0 โ 0 |
| 4 Oct 25 | KilmarnockvsSt Mirren | 2 โ 0 |
Kilmarnock: 3W 1D 0L in last 4
Model context
| Stat | Kilmarnock (Home) | St Mirren (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.4% | 57.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.2% | 42.1% |
| Clean sheet | 31.6% | 5.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.95 | 2.74 |
Home stats use Kilmarnock's home record; away stats use St Mirren's away record this season.