Kilmarnock vs St Mirren — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.7 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Kilmarnock
33%
Draw
27%
St Mirren
40%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a St Mirren win 39.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St Mirren win. Expected goals 1.29–1.42 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.8%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Kilmarnock
| 2 Aug | A | vs St Johnstone | 3–4 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Celtic | 1–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 0–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Aberdeen | 0–0 | D |
St Mirren
| 1 Aug | A | vs Falkirk | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Kilmarnock | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kilmarnock (Home · 4 matches) | St Mirren (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 1.33 |
Home stats use Kilmarnock's home record; away stats use St Mirren's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.