Kilmarnock vs Hearts — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Kilmarnock
19%
Draw
22%
result
Hearts
59%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 21.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hearts win. Expected goals 0.98–1.88 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (10.6%), 0–1 (10.6%), 0–2 (10.4%). It finished 1–1.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Kilmarnock
| 2 Aug | A | vs St Johnstone | 3–4 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Celtic | 1–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 0–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Aberdeen | 0–0 | D |
Hearts
| 1 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Hibernian | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kilmarnock (Home · 6 matches) | Hearts (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Kilmarnock's home record; away stats use Hearts's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.