Hibernian vs Kilmarnock — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hibernian
68%
top pick
Draw
19%
Kilmarnock
13%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Kilmarnock win 13.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hibernian win. Expected goals 2.11–0.79 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (12.6%), 1–0 (11.4%), 2–1 (9.9%). It finished 0–1.
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Hibernian
| 2 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Rangers | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Hearts | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs St Johnstone | 1–2 | L |
Kilmarnock
| 2 Aug | A | vs St Johnstone | 3–4 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Celtic | 1–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 0–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Aberdeen | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hibernian (Home · 6 matches) | Kilmarnock (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Hibernian's home record; away stats use Kilmarnock's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.