๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scottish PremiershipยทThursday, 3 September 2026ยท18:45
Metis Forecast
model onlyHibernian
46%
Draw
28%
Hearts
27%
Hibernian 1.49 xGexpected goals1.09 xG Hearts
Hibernian win 46% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1โ1 (13.3%).
Hibernian score at least twice in 44%; Hearts in 30%.
1โ1 13.3%1โ0 10.3%2โ1 9.2%0โ0 8.6%2โ0 8.4%0โ1 7.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Hibernian goals ยท columns = Hearts goals ยท % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Over 4.5 goals12%
Hibernian clean sheet34%
Hearts clean sheet23%
Hibernian score 2+44%
Hearts score 2+30%
Hibernian score 3+19%
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Recent form
Hibernian
| 3 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 2โ1 | W |
| 10 Aug | H | vs Kilmarnock | 2โ2 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs St Mirren | 1โ1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Dundee Utd | 3โ3 | D |
| 23 Sept | A | vs Falkirk | 2โ2 | D |
Hearts
| 4 Aug | H | vs Aberdeen | 2โ0 | W |
| 10 Aug | A | vs Dundee Utd | 3โ2 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 3โ3 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Livingston | 2โ1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Rangers | 2โ0 | W |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 26 | HibernianvsHearts | 1 โ 2 |
| 10 Feb 26 | HeartsvsHibernian | 1 โ 0 |
| 27 Dec 25 | HibernianvsHearts | 3 โ 2 |
| 4 Oct 25 | HeartsvsHibernian | 1 โ 0 |
Hibernian: 1W 0D 3L in last 4
Model context
| Stat | Hibernian (Home) | Hearts (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.6% | 57.9% |
| Clean sheet | 42.1% | 31.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.68 | 2.79 |
Home stats use Hibernian's home record; away stats use Hearts's away record this season.