Hibernian vs Hearts — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 3 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.7 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hibernian
39%
top pick
Draw
27%
Hearts
34%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Hearts win 34.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hibernian win. Expected goals 1.41–1.26 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–0 (8.5%), 0–1 (8.4%). It finished 1–3.
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Hibernian
| 2 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Rangers | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Hearts | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs St Johnstone | 1–2 | L |
Hearts
| 1 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Hibernian | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hibernian (Home · 4 matches) | Hearts (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Hibernian's home record; away stats use Hearts's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.