Hibernian vs Celtic — Scottish Premiership forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hibernian
20%
Draw
22%
Celtic
58%
Expected goals
1.01–1.89
Hibernian · Celtic
Celtic win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.4%), 0–2 (10.0%), 1–2 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Celtic win is 0–2 (10.0%).
Hibernian score at least twice in 27%; Celtic in 56%.
Scoreline distribution
Celtic goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hibernian goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| Market reference | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Metis Forecast | 20% | 22% | 58% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Hibernian
| 2 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Rangers | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Hearts | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs St Johnstone | 1–2 | L |
Celtic
| 3 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 5–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Aberdeen | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Mirren | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hibernian (Home · 5 matches) | Celtic (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Hibernian's home record; away stats use Celtic's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.