Hearts vs Rangers — Scottish Premiership forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hearts
29%
Draw
25%
Rangers
46%
Expected goals
1.23–1.52
Hearts · Rangers
Rangers win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–2 (10.4%), 0–1 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Rangers win is 1–2 (10.4%).
Hearts score at least twice in 34%; Rangers in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
Rangers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hearts goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 28% | 37% |
| Market reference | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Metis Forecast | 29% | 25% | 46% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hearts | 3.28 |
| Draw | 3.70 |
| Rangers | 2.10 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hearts
| 1 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Hibernian | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
Rangers
| 31 Jul | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Motherwell | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hearts (Home · 4 matches) | Rangers (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Hearts's home record; away stats use Rangers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.