Hearts vs Falkirk — Scottish Premiership forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hearts
66%
Draw
19%
Falkirk
15%
Expected goals
1.98–0.87
Hearts · Falkirk
Hearts win 66% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.0%), 1–0 (11.9%), 2–1 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Hearts score at least twice in 60%; Falkirk in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Falkirk goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hearts goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Market reference | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 66% | 19% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hearts | 1.48 |
| Draw | 4.75 |
| Falkirk | 6.03 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hearts
| 1 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Hibernian | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
Falkirk
| 1 Aug | H | vs St Mirren | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Motherwell | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rangers | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 15 Sept 26 | FalkirkvsHearts | 2 – 1 |
Hearts: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Hearts (Home · 5 matches) | Falkirk (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | 1.83 |
Home stats use Hearts's home record; away stats use Falkirk's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.