Hearts vs Dundee — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hearts
67%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Dundee
14%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Hearts win 66.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hearts win. Expected goals 1.96–0.77 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (13.0%), 1–0 (12.9%), 2–1 (10.3%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Hearts
| 1 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Hibernian | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
Dundee
| 3 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Aberdeen | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Dundee Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hearts (Home · 3 matches) | Dundee (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Hearts's home record; away stats use Dundee's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.