Falkirk vs Kilmarnock — Scottish Premiership forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Falkirk
52%
Draw
24%
Kilmarnock
24%
Expected goals
1.68–1.04
Falkirk · Kilmarnock
Falkirk win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 1–0 (10.2%), 2–1 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Falkirk win is 1–0 (10.2%).
Falkirk score at least twice in 50%; Kilmarnock in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Kilmarnock goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Falkirk goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market reference | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 24% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Falkirk | 1.85 |
| Draw | 3.84 |
| Kilmarnock | 3.94 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Falkirk
| 1 Aug | H | vs St Mirren | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Motherwell | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rangers | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
Kilmarnock
| 2 Aug | A | vs St Johnstone | 3–4 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Celtic | 1–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 0–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Aberdeen | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Falkirk (Home · 4 matches) | Kilmarnock (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Falkirk's home record; away stats use Kilmarnock's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.