Falkirk vs Hearts — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Falkirk
24%
result
Draw
26%
Hearts
50%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Falkirk win 24.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hearts win. Expected goals 1.04–1.58 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 0–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (9.7%). It finished 2–1.
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Falkirk
| 1 Aug | H | vs St Mirren | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Motherwell | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rangers | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
Hearts
| 1 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs St Johnstone | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Hibernian | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Falkirk (Home · 6 matches) | Hearts (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Falkirk's home record; away stats use Hearts's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.