Dundee vs Motherwell — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Dundee
31%
result
Draw
28%
Motherwell
41%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Dundee win 30.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Motherwell win. Expected goals 1.26–1.54 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–2 (8.3%), 2–1 (7.8%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Dundee
| 3 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Aberdeen | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Dundee Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
Motherwell
| 2 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Dundee Utd | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dundee (Home · 6 matches) | Motherwell (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Dundee's home record; away stats use Motherwell's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.