Dundee Utd vs Motherwell — Scottish Premiership forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Dundee Utd
48%
Draw
25%
Motherwell
27%
Expected goals
1.59–1.20
Dundee Utd · Motherwell
Dundee Utd win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (10.2%), 1–0 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Dundee Utd win is 2–1 (10.2%).
Dundee Utd score at least twice in 48%; Motherwell in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Motherwell goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Dundee Utd goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market reference | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 25% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Dundee Utd | 2.03 |
| Draw | 3.77 |
| Motherwell | 3.45 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Dundee Utd
| 31 Jul | H | vs Rangers | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 4–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Motherwell | 0–3 | L |
Motherwell
| 2 Aug | A | vs Hibernian | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St Mirren | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Dundee Utd | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 2 Sept 26 | MotherwellvsDundee United | 3 – 0 |
Dundee Utd: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Dundee Utd (Home · 5 matches) | Motherwell (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Dundee Utd's home record; away stats use Motherwell's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.