Dundee Utd vs Falkirk — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Dundee Utd
48%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
Falkirk
26%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Dundee Utd win. Expected goals 1.52–1.10 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–0 (11.3%), 2–1 (10.4%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Dundee Utd
| 31 Jul | H | vs Rangers | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 4–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Motherwell | 0–3 | L |
Falkirk
| 1 Aug | H | vs St Mirren | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Motherwell | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rangers | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dundee Utd (Home · 3 matches) | Falkirk (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Dundee Utd's home record; away stats use Falkirk's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.