Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen — Scottish Premiership forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Dundee Utd
44%
Draw
27%
Aberdeen
29%
Expected goals
1.42–1.04
Dundee Utd · Aberdeen
Dundee Utd win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (10.6%), 0–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Dundee Utd win is 1–0 (10.6%).
Dundee Utd score at least twice in 41%; Aberdeen in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Aberdeen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Dundee Utd goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market reference | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 27% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Dundee Utd | 2.18 |
| Draw | 3.50 |
| Aberdeen | 3.27 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Dundee Utd
| 31 Jul | H | vs Rangers | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 4–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Motherwell | 0–3 | L |
Aberdeen
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hearts | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Celtic | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Kilmarnock | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dundee Utd (Home · 4 matches) | Aberdeen (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.75 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Dundee Utd's home record; away stats use Aberdeen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.