Celtic vs Rangers — Scottish Premiership forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Celtic
43%
Draw
25%
Rangers
32%
Expected goals
1.56–1.29
Celtic · Rangers
Celtic win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Celtic win is 2–1 (9.0%).
Celtic score at least twice in 46%; Rangers in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Rangers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Celtic goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 27% | 30% |
| Market reference | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 25% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 2.26 | 2.20 | 2.15 | 2.18 | 2.30 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 2.30 Betano |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.64 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.64 | 3.23 | 3.80 Betano |
| Rangers | 3.06 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.98 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.10 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Celtic
| 3 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 5–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Aberdeen | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Mirren | 2–1 | W |
Rangers
| 31 Jul | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Motherwell | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Celtic (Home · 4 matches) | Rangers (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Celtic's home record; away stats use Rangers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.