Celtic vs Rangers — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Celtic
42%
top pick
Draw
26%
Rangers
32%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Rangers win 31.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Celtic win. Expected goals 1.57–1.32 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (8.8%), 1–2 (7.8%). It finished 0–1.
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Celtic
| 3 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 5–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Aberdeen | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Mirren | 2–1 | W |
Rangers
| 31 Jul | A | vs Dundee Utd | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Aberdeen | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Motherwell | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Celtic (Home · 6 matches) | Rangers (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Celtic's home record; away stats use Rangers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.