Celtic vs Kilmarnock — Scottish Premiership forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Celtic
82%
Draw
10%
Kilmarnock
7%
Expected goals
2.89–0.69
Celtic · Kilmarnock
Celtic win 82% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.9%), 3–0 (11.4%), 4–0 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Celtic score at least twice in 78%; Kilmarnock in 16%.
Scoreline distribution
Kilmarnock goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 8.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Celtic goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 82% | 13% | 6% |
| Market reference | 82% | 10% | 7% |
| Metis Forecast | 82% | 10% | 7% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Celtic | 1.18 |
| Draw | 8.29 |
| Kilmarnock | 11.37 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Celtic
| 3 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 5–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Aberdeen | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Mirren | 2–1 | W |
Kilmarnock
| 2 Aug | A | vs St Johnstone | 3–4 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Celtic | 1–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 0–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Aberdeen | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 9 Aug 26 | KilmarnockvsCeltic | 1 – 5 |
Celtic: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Celtic (Home · 6 matches) | Kilmarnock (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Celtic's home record; away stats use Kilmarnock's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.