Celtic vs Dundee Utd — Scottish Premiership forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Celtic
76%
Draw
16%
Dundee Utd
8%
Expected goals
2.51–0.80
Celtic · Dundee Utd
Celtic win 76% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.8%), 2–1 (9.9%), 3–0 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Celtic score at least twice in 72%; Dundee Utd in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Dundee Utd goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Celtic goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 77% | 18% | 6% |
| Market reference | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Metis Forecast | 76% | 16% | 8% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Celtic | 1.28 |
| Draw | 5.55 |
| Dundee Utd | 10.04 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Celtic
| 3 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 5–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Aberdeen | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Mirren | 2–1 | W |
Dundee Utd
| 31 Jul | H | vs Rangers | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Hearts | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kilmarnock | 4–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Motherwell | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Celtic (Home · 5 matches) | Dundee Utd (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Celtic's home record; away stats use Dundee Utd's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.